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I'm going to disagree with dead in the water. I will agree that there was a Dobbs backlash. But much of this wasn't on opposition to abortion itself; abortion supporters ran campaigns saying things like prolife laws don't have exceptions for the life of the mother—even though they all do. These battles are being fought on ground that actually isn't being contested, and not at all on their real position: unlimited abortions. This is very different from, say, the marriage issue, where simply saying marriage is between a man and woman is instant negative territory.
But the reality is that they can continue having Warren Buffett and Mike Bloomberg fly in $40 million dollars to swamp voters with ads. So, how to address that reality will be difficult, because prolifers don't have an army of billionaires to fly in cash for state referenda. There will have to be a change in strategy in swing states. But in red states, ending Roe v. Wade has not led to a catastrophic backlash, and those groups can very much declare total victory in some cases.
It will be a long, messy road, but I am optimistic once our demographic realities hit hard. Even China is willing to backtrack on abortion policy once reality sets in (though obviously not for the right reasons).
I expect you'll ruffle some feathers with this one. But I largely agree. I'd also guess that, although no politician says this out loud anymore, a lot of people still hold the "safe, legal, rare" view that abortion is generally wrong, but they're not too bothered by women making that choice for themselves.
The Democrats made what turned out to be a persuasive rhetorical case around things like miscarriages turned wrong, because it reached even women who would never consider abortion for themselves. The idea of the healthcare system failing you is very real and very scary, and the idea of other women deciding to quietly kill their own children behind closed doors is pretty abstract, so why, they reasoned, should you risk one to prevent the other?
Maybe it has always been this way, but I'll speculate that the pro-life cause is even more abstract in an atomized society in which we share ever-fewer bonds with our neighbors or countrymen, so those abortions one town over might as well be happening in Zambia. People have a far stronger emotional reaction to issues that are either personal, or that can successfully be framed as out-group vs. in-group. Unborn children, unfortunately, seldom find themselves in anyone's in-group besides their own family. And "abortion-seeking mothers" aren't a clear out-group to many people, either.
The abortion trend is a disturbing snapshot of our culture. My opinion was that Democrats manipulation of low info women who don't always bother to vote would help them a little, but not to the degree it appears to have done. Vermont, which has the lowest birthrate in the country voted 77-23% to make abortion legal at any point in pregnancy. Based on data I could find roughly 20% of pregnancies in Vermont end in abortion. In a post you made earlier this year I compared Vermont to a mainline church where the members seem unconcerned they don't have a future. That is consistent with these results.
Nationwide the results were closer but the results weren't better. In addition to young women who are content to be wage slaves to a corporation rather than raise a family, there appears to be a rise in Dave Portney type men who want abortion legal so they don't have to take responsibility for unwanted children. This is a suicidal mentality for our civilization.
Aaron, I unsubscribed from Patreon, maybe temporarily, because I have felt some frustration in your political takes lately. You say the culture war approach is obsolete. So what does that mean? Quit advocating for life and family issues? It also seems to me like you spend much more time punching right than left. I know you say you "call them like you see them", but it always seems you leave us with no suggestions, no other options. I think the final straw was the idea that we might actually vote for Democrats in certain cases. I know the Republicans let us down, but this is just a bridge too far for me.
I have to pushback a little on Vance especially on the GOPe narrative comparing his result to the Governor Mike (not Ron)DeWine. DeWine has been a fixture in Ohio politics since the mid 1970s and had 100% name recognition plus the Democrats didn't do much to fund his challenger. Tim Ryan was a more experienced candidate and Vance was new to running for office. I didn't think his result was an underperformance given those factors.
It appears DeSantis really benefited from transplants moving into the state voting for him. I would like to see a poll of how many of his voters weren't living in Florida in 2018 and where they came from. I speculated before the election that the Democrat Governors of Michigan, Minnesota and New York would all win partially because they had driven so many Republican voters from their states. Kristi Noem also appears to have benefited from this trend in South Dakota as she ran much stronger than her 2018 result and better than she was polling.
I'm going to disagree with dead in the water. I will agree that there was a Dobbs backlash. But much of this wasn't on opposition to abortion itself; abortion supporters ran campaigns saying things like prolife laws don't have exceptions for the life of the mother—even though they all do. These battles are being fought on ground that actually isn't being contested, and not at all on their real position: unlimited abortions. This is very different from, say, the marriage issue, where simply saying marriage is between a man and woman is instant negative territory.
But the reality is that they can continue having Warren Buffett and Mike Bloomberg fly in $40 million dollars to swamp voters with ads. So, how to address that reality will be difficult, because prolifers don't have an army of billionaires to fly in cash for state referenda. There will have to be a change in strategy in swing states. But in red states, ending Roe v. Wade has not led to a catastrophic backlash, and those groups can very much declare total victory in some cases.
It will be a long, messy road, but I am optimistic once our demographic realities hit hard. Even China is willing to backtrack on abortion policy once reality sets in (though obviously not for the right reasons).
I expect you'll ruffle some feathers with this one. But I largely agree. I'd also guess that, although no politician says this out loud anymore, a lot of people still hold the "safe, legal, rare" view that abortion is generally wrong, but they're not too bothered by women making that choice for themselves.
The Democrats made what turned out to be a persuasive rhetorical case around things like miscarriages turned wrong, because it reached even women who would never consider abortion for themselves. The idea of the healthcare system failing you is very real and very scary, and the idea of other women deciding to quietly kill their own children behind closed doors is pretty abstract, so why, they reasoned, should you risk one to prevent the other?
Maybe it has always been this way, but I'll speculate that the pro-life cause is even more abstract in an atomized society in which we share ever-fewer bonds with our neighbors or countrymen, so those abortions one town over might as well be happening in Zambia. People have a far stronger emotional reaction to issues that are either personal, or that can successfully be framed as out-group vs. in-group. Unborn children, unfortunately, seldom find themselves in anyone's in-group besides their own family. And "abortion-seeking mothers" aren't a clear out-group to many people, either.
The abortion trend is a disturbing snapshot of our culture. My opinion was that Democrats manipulation of low info women who don't always bother to vote would help them a little, but not to the degree it appears to have done. Vermont, which has the lowest birthrate in the country voted 77-23% to make abortion legal at any point in pregnancy. Based on data I could find roughly 20% of pregnancies in Vermont end in abortion. In a post you made earlier this year I compared Vermont to a mainline church where the members seem unconcerned they don't have a future. That is consistent with these results.
Nationwide the results were closer but the results weren't better. In addition to young women who are content to be wage slaves to a corporation rather than raise a family, there appears to be a rise in Dave Portney type men who want abortion legal so they don't have to take responsibility for unwanted children. This is a suicidal mentality for our civilization.
Aaron, I unsubscribed from Patreon, maybe temporarily, because I have felt some frustration in your political takes lately. You say the culture war approach is obsolete. So what does that mean? Quit advocating for life and family issues? It also seems to me like you spend much more time punching right than left. I know you say you "call them like you see them", but it always seems you leave us with no suggestions, no other options. I think the final straw was the idea that we might actually vote for Democrats in certain cases. I know the Republicans let us down, but this is just a bridge too far for me.
I have to pushback a little on Vance especially on the GOPe narrative comparing his result to the Governor Mike (not Ron)DeWine. DeWine has been a fixture in Ohio politics since the mid 1970s and had 100% name recognition plus the Democrats didn't do much to fund his challenger. Tim Ryan was a more experienced candidate and Vance was new to running for office. I didn't think his result was an underperformance given those factors.
It appears DeSantis really benefited from transplants moving into the state voting for him. I would like to see a poll of how many of his voters weren't living in Florida in 2018 and where they came from. I speculated before the election that the Democrat Governors of Michigan, Minnesota and New York would all win partially because they had driven so many Republican voters from their states. Kristi Noem also appears to have benefited from this trend in South Dakota as she ran much stronger than her 2018 result and better than she was polling.